The Panic Causation

Mike Leslie
April 15, 2024

"Cryptocurrencies plunged on Saturday after reports that Iran had begun an attack on Israel, demonstrating how crypto assets can react while more traditional investment instruments are not available for trading," declares MarketWatch.

Inputs that matter: Yahoo! Finance reports "Bitcoin was down 5% from its price on Friday, while ether sank more than 7%, and XRP tumbled 13.5%, according to CoinMarketCap."

  • Bitcoin_Archives tweets, "Bitcoin plunges $6,000 in minutes after reports of Iran launching up to 100 drones towards Israel in retaliation for their embassy being bombed by Israel earlier this month."
  • "A fuller picture of Wall Street's reaction to Iran's first-ever, full-scale military assault on Israel will come on Sunday evening when futures trading opens in the U.S. for stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies."

The opportunity: Before other markets react, NPR details that G7 leaders are meeting on Sunday afternoon to coordinate a diplomatic response to Iran's attack.

  • "The U.N. Security Council is also set to meet, after Israel requested the council condemn Iran's attack, and designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization."

Zoom in: CNBC reports "Iranian currency plunges to record low against dollar after strikes on Israel."

  • Reuters reports "Gulf markets dropped slightly on Sunday, an early indication of investor reaction to Iran's unprecedented attack on Israeli territory, as investors prepared for trading in most markets to resume Monday, with eyes particularly on oil."
  • "We think oil into the summer months will kind of top out at around $95+ a barrel," Bank of America head of global commodities Francisco Blanch told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
  • Former White House advisor Bob McNally believes $100 oil is "entirely real."

Between the lines: According to the on-chain data provider, 370,000 new wallets holding at least one BTC have been created in the last six days, and the number of BTC holders now totals 52.94 million, growing by 0.1% since the beginning of the year.

  • Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern about inflation with the rising oil price and is expected to forgo the June rate cuts.

Follow the money: 82% of the crude oil that moves through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets: China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Bloomberg reports, "The situation is fluid, and for the oil market, everything depends now on how Israel's response and the chance of a cycle of escalation."
  • "The risk of a future disruption has increased."

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